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Extreme crowd level forecast changes


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I received this info in email today. What the heck changed for such big changes? Last time we were there at this time of year there were lots of 1s, 2s, and 3s. This is far enough after marathon weekend and far enough before Mardis Gras and Presidents weekend that those should have no bearing. What gives?

January 24, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.

January 24, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

January 24, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.

January 24, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 8.

January 25, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.

January 25, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 3 to 6.

January 25, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 7.

January 25, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

January 26, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.

January 26, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 5.

January 26, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.

January 26, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.

January 26, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 27, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.

January 27, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 27, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

January 27, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 28, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 1 to 5.

January 28, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 1 to 4.

January 28, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 1 to 3.

January 28, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 1 to 4.

January 28, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 1 to 5.

January 29, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 2 to 4.

January 29, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 1 to 4.

January 29, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 29, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 2 to 5.

January 29, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 3.

January 30, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

January 30, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 30, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 4.

January 31, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.

January 31, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 31, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

February 01, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 8 to 9.

February 01, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 6.

February 01, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.

February 01, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 01, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 3 to 6.

February 02, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 02, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 7.

February 02, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.

February 02, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.

February 03, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.

February 03, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

February 03, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 2 to 4.

February 03, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 03, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.

February 04, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 5.

February 04, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 04, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

February 04, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.

February 05, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

February 05, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 05, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 5.

February 05, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 06, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 6.

February 06, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 6.

February 06, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 7.

February 06, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

February 06, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 3 to 6.

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First of all, received it from who, and who is to say that last years level for the same period were correct?

Crowd level figures should be taken with a huge grain of salt to begin with.

They can vary by one or two points from website to website and they can be off by one or two points as well

I would use them as a rough relative crowd level and not an exact prediction.

The last week in Jan and first week in Feb will be slower than the weeks before and after. That's what I take away from the 2015 crowd level predictions.

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Yeah. The thing is though, the crowd level forecasts for the last two times we were there during that period, were pretty accurate.

As far as from who.....from a reputable source.

As i said before, last years levels I shared were based on the actual attendance and ride times, not forecasts.

I think the numbers have gone up bc standby ride times have gone way up bc of the idiotic FP+, but that could just be me.

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I think the numbers have gone up bc standby ride times have gone way up bc of the idiotic FP+, but that could just be me.

 

Hmm... interesting theory.

 

There were a lot of tour groups the end of January and beginning of February at Pop Century this year. Some were cheerleaders and others were South Americans.

 

That is prime South American tour group time.  I wonder if Disney has a big promotion planned for south of the equator?

 

Seu calendário multidão é tão inútil quanto um rolo de canela.

 

:rofl2:

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Yeah. The thing is though, the crowd level forecasts for the last two times we were there during that period, were pretty accurate.

 

 

You're a better crowd level assessor than I am, because I can't give the crowd level that I see a number and say that it's accurate for the day and for the entire park.

 

As far as from who.....from a reputable source.

 

The only reputable and accurate source is Disney because the methodology that others use is based on best guess past and present estimates along with some voodoo thrown in.

 

As i said before, last years levels I shared were based on the actual attendance and ride times, not forecasts.

 

 

Actual attendance numbers for a WDW park, if true, you've really got something.

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Wow.

Snarkasm.

How quaint.

I like the part about how I am better than you.

I could tell when they gave it a 1-3 that it must be somewhat accurate bc the wait times were low and it never took more than 10-15 minutes to get on a ride.

When they had higher numbers forecasted, the parks definitely seemed busier and ride lines were definitely longer.

Anecdotal? Sure.

But how busy the parks feel and how long the lines take are how i personally determine if their numbers are close or not.

Wow i let the snarkasm bother me there for a second.

I need to remember that bus drivers usually give bad info.

:)

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I was there the last weekend of January, and they rose crowd levels while I was there. There was a big dance team thing going on. The waits were definitely shorter than Easter week, but we saw PLENTY of long lines and crowds. Jason kept commenting that he thought we were going in the "off season."

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Hmm... perhaps Disney has finally found a way to erase one of the last remaining "quiet" seasons.

That's how it seemed to me. We were there midweek this January and long waits were pretty normal. There were tons of chanting people following flags which was nice because we were able to run the other way when we saw them. 

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  • 5 months later...

Just received this. It appears that it has been changed back tonclose to what it was originally before the extreme changes Inoriginally posted. Weird.

Walt Disney World Crowd Tracker Updates!

January 24, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 8 to 5.

January 24, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 6 to 4.

January 24, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

January 24, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

January 24, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

January 25, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

January 25, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 25, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

January 25, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 5.

January 26, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

January 26, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

January 26, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

January 26, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 2.

January 26, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

January 27, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 2.

January 27, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

January 27, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

January 27, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 27, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 2.

January 28, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

January 28, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 28, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 5 to 2.

January 28, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

January 28, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 29, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 2.

January 29, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 29, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

January 29, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

January 29, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 2.

January 30, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 4.

January 30, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 30, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

January 30, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 2.

January 30, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

January 31, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

January 31, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

January 31, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 01, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 9 to 8.

February 01, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 6 to 4.

February 01, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

February 01, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 01, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 4.

February 02, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.

February 02, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.

February 02, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 4.

February 03, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

February 03, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

February 03, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

February 03, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

February 03, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 04, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 2.

February 04, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 04, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

February 04, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

February 04, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 05, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

February 05, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 4 to 2.

February 05, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 2.

February 05, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 3.

February 05, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 06, 2015: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.

February 06, 2015: Disney's Hollywood Studios Crowd Level updated from 6 to 3.

February 06, 2015: Disney's Animal Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 6 to 5.

February 06, 2015: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 6 to 4.

February 06, 2015: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.

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